October 4, 2013

US Gulf Coast on Hurricane Watch

The National Hurricane Center is one of the few US Government agencies still working normally during the current "shutdown". As they point out on their web site:

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

In a public advisory bulletin issued at 13:00 UTC yesterday the NHC reported that Tropical Storm Karen had formed. In their most recent bulletin about Karen at 09:00 UTC this morning they say about her that:

LOCATION: 24.9N 89.8W, ABOUT 295 MI (470 KM) S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH (17 KM/H)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES)

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

Here's Karen's current forecast track for the next 5 days:

NHC forecast track for Tropical Storm Karen at 04:00 CDT on Friday October 4th, 2013

NHC forecast track for Tropical Storm Karen at 04:00 CDT on Friday October 4th, 2013

As you can see, at the moment she is forecast to cross the Gulf coast without quite reaching hurricane intensity. Nevertheless, the NHC bulletin goes on to say:

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.

KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

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Comments on US Gulf Coast on Hurricane Watch »

October 5, 2013

Jim @ 8:55 am

This morning (UTC) the Hurricane Watch has been removed, and the predicted effects of Karen's passage over the Gulf states are now less severe. According to the latest NHC bulletin about Karen:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE:

TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY – 1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY – 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY – 1 TO 2 FT

KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

October 6, 2013

Jim @ 4:09 pm

This afternoon (UTC) the National Hurricane Center issued their last public advisory bulletin for Karen. they say that:

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF KAREN IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A RESULT KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC) THE REMNANTS OF KAREN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST. THE REMANTS OF KAREN ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT AROUND 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).

LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

Weather.gov currently says that:

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

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